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Irregular Migration Movements and Forecasts

Mehmet Zeki Bodur tarafından yazıldı.

What is the most important problem of the century to ask me today? I would immediately respond to you with "migration”. The 21st century has been a period of migration and asylum movements that are still affecting millions of people. If these negative conditions are continuous in the world and do not change in the future, “Problem of Irregular Migration” will continue to accelerate in the future.

The migration problem that has taken place today is largely due to the effects of political, economic and natural disasters in the world. It affects primarily all developed countries in the world. However, migration affects other countries which are geographically close to the migrants home countries.

In the last century, irregular migration, which is most influenced by globalization, has gained a greater impetus as a result of civil war, war, terrorism and human rights violations, and especially in least developed countries. In this framework, economic and political turmoil in least developed and developing countries have also revealed problems such as wars, natural disasters, climate change, famine and hunger. It has forced millions of people to leave in legal and illegal ways.

As a result of all, regional and continental migration routes emerged. And today it has become a global migration problem that includes millions of people. Moreover, the spread of international migration movements throughout the world has also created a suitable environment for increasing the crime of smuggling of migrants. Especially, the terrorist actions due to the wars and civil wars that took place after the events 11th of September also revealed the security and life problems for migrants. The best examples of civil war and terrorist incidents occurred in Iraq, Palestine, Afghanistan, Somalia and Syria.

When we look at the common characteristics of the migrating countries, there is a danger of security and life after the regional war or the civil war all around.

Today, irregular migration is triggered by climate change and natural disasters. From the perspective of states in the Far East, thousands of people have begun to irregularly immigrate, with the impact of floods, earthquakes and tsunami, which are the result of natural disasters.

For example, tsunami in Burma, many people have migrated from the earthquake in Indonesia. The epidemic and famine problems that have arisen as a result of all these disasters have also contributed to the causes of migration.

Moreover, the most important factors of international migration are the globalization of communication and transportation. In this context, immigrants have encouraged immigrants to obtain information from their former immigrants, whom they have seen in the global communication environment. Moreover, the vast majority of alternative means of transportation are among the factors facilitating illegal migration.

One of the leading causes of mobility at the global level is the flow of resources from poor countries in the south to wealthy countries in the north. In this context, the globalization of trade and migration are similar. Population movements resemble this and follow the same route by flowing through the rich regions from those that are poor.

It has been directly influenced by these developments that have taken place in the world in Turkey. In this framework, our country has become the target country for massive migration and asylum movements. In addition, it has become a transit country in illegal migration to other countries, especially to European countries. In the Central Mediterranean, illegal migration from the sea to the coasts of Italy and Malta via Tunisia and Libya is seen. In this framework, the EU receives intensive border security for the mentioned migration routes.  Illegal migration by sea is a sector with low cost but high profit. For this reason, maritime confrontation emerges as the most preferred method by organized crime organizations. Illegal migration organizers organized in national and international circles continue their activities with changing methods every passing day. In this frame, they are getting big money.

As a result of, the illegal / irregular migration will continue at a rapid pace if there is no change in global adversity in the next century. Depending on globalization, migrations will increase from countries with fewer resources to countries with more resources. Current data show that through law enforcement, illegal migration can not be stopped in the short term but its speed can be reduced.

So what will be we doing in the future ? What can we do ?

If there is no solution, there will be collective migrations, in the future similar to the past "Migration of Tribes". In this framework, it is necessary to make good predictions about the future by analyzing the causes and consequences of "Migration of Tribes" well in today's conditions.

We have to stop wars and civil wars in the world. Ethnic nationalist movements will develop against immigrants in many countries with a nation-state structure, in particular the EU member states. In order to be able to help immigrants, common policies with the UN and other international non-governmental organizations, in particular the EU, are necessary. It is also necessary to stop the war and violence in the source countries of immigrants.

In addition to all these, increasing the employment opportunities of immigrants in the source country has a great prospect in terms of the factors that will stop migration. We have to equal the income distribution in the world.  

In the future, as in the past, one of the most important consequences of climate change should be considered as human migration. Countries that will be most affected by climate change in this framework should already be investigated and necessary precautions should be taken. We must protect the world in environmental matters.

Finally, it is very important to strengthen national and international policies related to the issue.

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